If recent reports from Washington are any indication of things to come, the tobacco industry's fighting retreat of recent years is at least dissolving into peace talks and may be turning into a new offensive.

But the traditional system of alliances that has helped sustain the tobacco wars for dec- ades is showing some signs of strain now, too.

It's been no surprise to anyone on either side of the issue that the Bush administration is backing off from the war on tobacco.

"At every instance, the Bush administration has gone in the opposite direction from the rest of the country," when it comes to tobacco control, said William Corr, executive vice president of the Washington-based Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids.

Tobacco-control groups are compiling a growing list of what they see as Bush's pro-tobacco stances.

At the top is the Justice Department's decision to seek a settlement of its lawsuit against the industry. The suit, initiated under Clinton, seeks to force tobacco companies to disgorge potentially billions of dollars of profits from cigarette sales.

Now, the companies may be able to settle without having to pay, simply by agreeing to additional limits on cigarette advertising, analysts and other observers say.

Before the smoke cleared on that news, word leaked last month that the administration had intervened to prevent South Korea from imposing a 40-cent tax on imported cigarettes when it opens its market to foreign cigarette makers this year.

A Bush spokesman called it "a straight trade issue," but public health groups interpreted it as a reversal of the Clinton administration's rule that the federal government shouldn't promote tobacco overseas.

Bush also has cut funding for smoking research at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and has resisted the World Health Organization's efforts to put global restrictions on tobacco advertising and sales, health groups contend.

One anti-smoking group has asked Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass., who is chairman of the Senate committee devoted to health, to hold hearings on Bush's tobacco policies in hopes of preventing further damage to the tobacco-control movement.

"One good thing I'm sensing is a lot of concern in the Senate, especially among the Democratic members, about the administration's position with regards to tobacco," said John Banzhaf, a law professor and director of Action on Smoking and Health, the group that's requesting the hearings.

Against this backdrop, cigarette companies and anti-smoking groups are maneuvering for position on what likely will be the next battle front: Food and Drug Administration regulation of tobacco products.

"The industry has certainly gotten a lot more proactive," on FDA regulation, said analyst Ann Gurkin of Davenport & Co. in Richmond. But Gurkin said FDA regulation isn't likely to happen soon, largely because the Bush administration hasn't been interested in it.

If it does happen, Philip Morris, the nation's top tobacco company, is in the best position to call the shots. But the company won't get its way without some resistance, and much of that is coming from inside the industry.

Other companies have condemned an FDA regulation bill introduced by Virginia Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, R-11th, as the "Marlboro Monopoly Act," because it would help Philip Morris protect its market share, they say. Although Philip Morris hasn't endorsed any legislation, tobacco control groups say the company is behind the Davis bill, which they say is far too weak to protect public health.

The wild card in the debate might be tobacco companies' longtime allies, tobacco farmers. Farmers' groups have recently forged an alliance with health groups to work for tighter FDA regulations, as well as a 17-cent cigarette tax increase to pay for a buyout of U.S. tobacco quotas.

Those recommendations are in a report released in May by a Clinton-appointed commission of farmers and health activists. Companies and tobacco-state politicians opposed to the tax increase have dismissed the report. Two North Carolina congressmen, in an effort to coax farmers away from the report, have since introduced legislation to buy out the quota using existing excise taxes.

But some farmers and public health activists are planning their own lobbying blitz in Congress this summer to push the commission's recommendations through, possibly setting up a conflict among the industry's traditional allies.

The report "is the absolute floor for public health groups and the absolute ceiling for tobacco growers," as far as the concessions each side is willing to make, said Virginia tobacco grower Andrew Shepherd, who served on the commission.

"But at least the farmers and public health advocates are in the same room," he said. "Right now, Philip Morris is in the basement."