|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Iain Murray |
| Columnist, TCS |
 |
 | | |
|
|
|
Statistical Traffic Wreck
|
|
| By Iain
Murray |
04/28/2003
|
 |
|
| Last week we heard on
every news channel and read in every newspaper the disturbing news
that more people had been killed in traffic accidents in 2002 than
the previous year. The National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration (NHTSA) had announced that 42,850 people had been
killed in 38,356 fatal crashes, compared with 42,116 killed in
37,795 fatal accidents in 2001. There was much breast-beating and
furrowing of brows at the news and the blame industry went into
overdrive. The NHTSA itself provided much ammunition, and two of the
blame industry's favorite targets were fingered: SUVs and alcohol.
Yet a closer look at the details reveals that these figures are not
the disaster they were portrayed as, and that there is one culprit
that stands out above all else as the cause of most deaths.
To begin with, when we hear that more people have been
killed than in a previous year, we must always remember that the
American population is also climbing. More people in America means
more people on the road. More people on the road means more
opportunity for accidents, so it is not necessarily a surprise that
more people have been killed in them. The question we need to ask is
whether more people were killed per vehicle mile traveled in 2002
than in 2001. The NHTSA provides the answer: in 2002, there were 1.5
fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled. That figure is
identical to the 2001 figure, which in turn was the lowest figure in
recent years (the number was over 2 until 1991, when it dropped
below that level for the first occasion in modern times).
So
our roads are actually as safe as they were last year, which is the
safest they have ever been since the era of mass automobile
ownership began. The consistent trend of our roads getting safer
over the last decade is continuing. Moreover, when it comes to
traffic injuries, the news is even better. Injuries per 100 million
vehicle miles dropped from 109 in 2001 to 103 in 2002, a
decrease of 5 percent. This is part of a consistent decline in
injuries since 1995.
Nevertheless, the NHTSA provided
figures that told reporters that SUVs, pickup trucks and vans were
responsible for 59 percent of the increase in fatalities for vehicle
occupants. SUVs, unsurprisingly, got the lion's share of the blame
for the 500 extra fatalities in this category. Yet once again, this
does not tell the full story. Just as the population of America has
been increasing, the number of SUVs has also been increasing as they
become more popular. The number of SUVs registered in the USA
tripled from 976,000 in 1989 to over 3 million in 2001. There may be
a safety issue with SUVs, but it is also possible that reckless
drivers who would get into an accident anyway are now more likely
than before to drive an SUV. It would therefore be useful to know
the number of fatalities per SUV registered, but the NHTSA does not
provide this information. It is also noticeable that the number of
injuries sustained in SUV, pickup and van accidents declined from
861,000 to 848,000.
The NHTSA also stated that the number of
alcohol related fatalities increased by 3 percent, from 17,448 to
17,990. However, when we look at the number per 100 million vehicle
miles traveled, we find the figure increases by a tiny amount from
0.63 to 0.64. The rate has been increasing marginally from a low in
1999 following a decade long fall, but it is still well below the
level of as recently as 1996. It is also interesting that the number
of fatalities by those "impaired" by alcohol, in other words those
who had taken a drink but were still legally allowed to drive (a
blood alcohol content of less than 0.08), fell by 7 percent. The
increase in alcohol-related fatalities came in those already
recognized as intoxicated. There is certainly no case here for
lowering the legal drinking limit further. Instead, these figures
seem to confirm the well-established case that it is "hardcore"
drunk drivers that are the real danger on the road and that policy
changes should be targeted at them.
Alcohol played a role in
42 percent of traffic fatalities and SUVs, pickups and vans in about
35 percent. Yet the NHTSA findings pointed to a much more dangerous
factor. Of all fatalities, 59 percent involved someone failing to
wear a restraint like a seatbelt. Even a drunk driver in an SUV is
much more likely to survive a rollover if he is wearing a seatbelt.
Equally, a sober driver in a subcompact is more likely to survive if
she is wearing a seatbelt when a drunken SUV driver crashes into her
vehicle.
Not using a seatbelt is the single most dangerous
thing a driver or other vehicle occupant can do. There is, however,
no industry that makes money out of people not wearing seatbelts
(except possibly for funeral directors). Instead, reporters have to
blame their viewers and readers individually. It's much more
convenient to accuse evil SUV manufacturers and the alcohol and
restaurant industries. Yet because blame is focused elsewhere, fewer
people will get the one most vital message that could help save
their lives.
|
 |
|
|
